Social media ecosystems and transnational radicalization outcomes in Kenya: A mixed-methods analysis of content, platforms, networks, and algorithms

https://doi.org/10.51867/ajernet.7.1.30

Authors

Keywords:

Digital Media, Online Radicalization, Social Media Algorithms, Transnational Networks, Violent Extremism

Abstract

Violent extremist organizations increasingly exploit digital and social media to disseminate ideology, recruit adherents, and coordinate across borders. In the Horn of Africa, these dynamics interact with local socio-economic vulnerabilities, yet the mechanisms through which digital environments facilitate transnational radicalization at sub-national levels remain under-examined. This paper investigates the digital-media drivers of radicalization into extremism in Kenya, focusing on Likoni Sub-County in Mombasa County. Drawing on Liberalism, Transnationalism, and Securitization perspectives, the paper disaggregates digital influence into four mechanisms: online content, platform-specific dynamics, transnational network reach, and algorithmic exposure. A mixed-methods design combined questionnaires, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions among youth, community leaders, former programme participants, security personnel, civil society actors, and digital literacy trainers. Using Yamane’s formula (8% margin of error), a sample of 156 respondents was selected through multi-stage, simple random, convenience, purposive, and snowball techniques. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression, while qualitative data were analyzed thematically. Results indicate that digital and social media significantly predict radicalization outcomes (R² = .634, F=115.032, p< .01), with platform dynamics (β=.336), online content (β=.298), network reach (β=.272), and algorithmic influence (β=.216) emerging as strong predictors. Qualitative evidence further shows how local grievances are reframed within global extremist narratives, recruitment shifts across open and encrypted platforms, and algorithmic curation reinforces echo chambers. The paper argues for balanced counter-radicalization approaches integrating security measures with rights-sensitive digital governance, platform-tailored regulation, digital literacy, and cross-border cooperation.

Dimensions

Alava, S., Frau-Meigs, D., & Hassan, G. (2017). Youth and violent extremism on social media: Mapping the research. UNESCO. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000260382

Amakanji, G. O., Okoth, P. G., & Maloba, E. W. (2023). The cursed promised land? Demographic risk factors for homegrown extremism in the squatter enclaves of Mount Elgon region of Western Kenya. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/00219096231197777 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00219096231197777

Anderson, D. M., & McKnight, J. (2015). Kenya at war: Al-Shabaab and its enemies in Eastern Africa. African Affairs, 114(454), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adu082 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/adu082

Archetti, C. (2015). Terrorism, communication and new media: Explaining radicalization in the digital age. Perspectives on Terrorism, 9(1), 49-59.

Balzacq, T. (2005). The three faces of securitization: Political agency, audience and context. European Journal of International Relations, 11(2), 171-201. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066105052960 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066105052960

Berger, J. M. (2018). Extremism. MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/11688.001.0001

https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/11688.001.0001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/11688.001.0001

Berger, J. M., & Morgan, J. (2015). The ISIS Twitter census: Defining and describing the population of ISIS supporters on Twitter. Brookings Institution.

Botha, A. (2014). Radicalisation in Kenya: Recruitment to al-Shabaab and the Mombasa Republican Council (ISS Paper 265). Institute for Security Studies.

Buzan, B., Wæver, O., & de Wilde, J. (1998). Security: A new framework for analysis. Lynne Rienner.

https://doi.org/10.1515/9781685853808 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9781685853808

Chitembwe, S. J., Okoth, P. G., & Matanga, F. K. (2021). The nature, extent and impact of youth radicalization in Mombasa and Kwale Counties, Kenya. Open Access Library Journal, 8, e7386. https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1107386 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4236/oalib.1107386

Chome, N. (2016). Violent extremism and clan dynamics in Kenya. United States Institute of Peace.

Clifford, B., & Powell, H. (2019). Encrypted extremism: Inside the English-speaking Islamic State ecosystem on Telegram. Program on Extremism, The George Washington University. https://extremism.gwu.edu/encrypted-extremism

Conway, M. (2017). Determining the role of the Internet in violent extremism and terrorism: Six suggestions for progressing research. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 40(1), 77-98. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2016.1157408 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2016.1157408

Gilroy, G. (2024). The online frontline: Decoding al-Shabaab's social media strategy. CTC Sentinel, 17(1), 25-30. https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-online-frontline-decoding-al-shabbaabs-social-media-strategy/

Government of Kenya. (2023). National Strategy to Counter Violent Extremism (NSCVE) (PDF). National Counter Terrorism Centre. https://counterterrorism.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/National-Strategy-to-Counter-Violent-Extremism-NSCVE-1.pdf

International Crisis Group. (2019). Facing the challenge of the Islamic State in West Africa Province (Africa Report No. 273). https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/273-facing-challenge-islamic-state-west-africa-province

International Crisis Group. (2020). The Islamic State franchises in Africa: Lessons from Lake Chad. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/central-africa/lake-chad/lessons-islamic-state-franchises-africa

Keohane, R. O. (1984). After hegemony: Cooperation and discord in the world political economy. Princeton University Press.

Keohane, R. O. (1988). International institutions: Two approaches. International Studies Quarterly, 32(4), 379-396.

https://doi.org/10.2307/2600589 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2600589

Klausen, J. (2015). Tweeting the jihad: Social media networks of Western foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 38(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2014.974948

https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2014.974948 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2014.974948

Lim, M. (2017). Freedom to hate: Social media, algorithmic enclaves, and the rise of tribal nationalism in Indonesia. Critical Asian Studies, 49(3), 411-427. https://doi.org/10.1080/14672715.2017.1341188 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14672715.2017.1341188

McDonald, M. (2008). Securitization and the construction of security. European Journal of International Relations, 14(4), 563-587. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066108097553 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066108097553

National Counter Terrorism Centre. (2016). National Strategy to Counter Violent Extremism (NSCVE). Government of Kenya. https://counterterrorism.go.ke/major-nctc-driven-strategies-and-policies%E2%80%A8/

Nye, J. S., & Keohane, R. O. (1971). Transnational relations and world politics: An introduction. International Organization, 25(3), 329-349. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2706043

https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300026187 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300026187

Oluteyo, G. A., Were, E., & Simiyu, R. (2018). Nature of scanning, analysis, response and assessment (SARA) based response strategies in the management of youth radicalization in Nairobi County, Kenya. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 8(8).

https://doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.8.8.2018.p8074 DOI: https://doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.8.8.2018.p8074

Onunga, R. A., Onkware, K., & Iteyo, C. (2022). Nature of religious groups' engagement in preventing youth radicalization in Mombasa County, Kenya. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 8(8). http://dx.doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.12.07.2022.p12715 DOI: https://doi.org/10.29322/IJSRP.12.07.2022.p12715

Republic of Kenya. (2012). Prevention of Terrorism Act (No. 30 of 2012). National Council for Law Reporting (Kenya Law). https://www.frc.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/PreventionofTerrorismAct30of2012.pdf

Ribeiro, M. H., Ottoni, R., West, R., Almeida, V. A. F., & Meira, W., Jr. (2020). Auditing radicalization pathways on YouTube. In Proceedings of the 2020 Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (FAccT '20). https://doi.org/10.1145/3351095.3372879 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1145/3351095.3372879

Rogers, R. (2020). Deplatforming: Following extreme Internet celebrities to Telegram and alternative social media. European Journal of Communication, 35(3), 213-229. https://doi.org/10.1177/0267323120922066 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0267323120922066

Sageman, M. (2017). Misunderstanding terrorism. University of Pennsylvania Press.

Stritzel, H. (2007). Towards a theory of securitization: Copenhagen and beyond. European Journal of International Relations, 13(3), 357-383. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066107080128 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066107080128

Sunstein, C. R. (2017). #Republic: Divided democracy in the age of social media. Princeton University Press.

https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400884711 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400884711

United Nations Security Council. (2022). Resolution 2628 (2022) [on the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)]. https://undocs.org/S/RES/2628(2022)

Van Metre, L. (2016). Community resilience to violent extremism in Kenya (Peaceworks No. 122). United States Institute of Peace. https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/PW122-Community-Resilience-to-Violent-Extremism-in-Kenya.pdf

Van Metre, L. (2016). From the ground up: Regional and local approaches to countering violent extremism. United States Institute of Peace.

Whittaker, J. (2022). Rethinking online radicalization. Perspectives on Terrorism, 16(4), 27-40.

Whittaker, J., Looney, S., Reed, A., & Votta, F. (2021). Recommender systems and the amplification of extremist content. Internet Policy Review, 10(2). https://doi.org/10.14763/2021.2.1565 DOI: https://doi.org/10.14763/2021.2.1565

Winter, C. (2017). Media jihad: The Islamic State's doctrine for information warfare. International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), King's College London. https://icsr.info/2017/02/23/new-report-media-jihad/

Published

2026-01-31

How to Cite

Said, F. M., Agola, F. O., & Oluteyo, G. A. (2026). Social media ecosystems and transnational radicalization outcomes in Kenya: A mixed-methods analysis of content, platforms, networks, and algorithms. African Journal of Empirical Research, 7(1), 349–362. https://doi.org/10.51867/ajernet.7.1.30

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): Jan-Mar 2026

Section

Articles
Copyright & Licensing

Copyright (c) 2026 Fatuma Musa Said, Fredrick Ochieng Agola, Graham Amakanji Oluteyo

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC