Factors influencing farmers’ climate adaptation strategies in major rice-growing regions in Tanzania

Beatrice Ndosi; Joseph P. Hella; Ntengua Y.S. Mdoe

doi:10.51867/ajernet.7.1.33

Authors

Beatrice Ndosi
beatricendosi02@gmail.com
Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, College of Economics and Business Studies,Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), Tanzania,P.O.Box 3007, Morogoro, Tanzania
Prof. Joseph Hella Department of Trade and Investment, College of Economics and Business Studies,Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), Tanzania,P.O.Box 3007, Morogoro, Tanzania
Prof. Ntengua Mdoe Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, College of Economics and Business Studies,Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), Tanzania,P.O.Box 3007, Morogoro, Tanzania

Keywords:

climate change adaptation, Climate-Smart Agriculture, Rice Farming, Multivariate Probit

Abstract

Climate change increasingly threatens rice-based farming systems in Tanzania, where production is highly sensitive to water availability, labor constraints, and climate variability. This study examines the determinants and interrelationships of climate adaptation strategies among rice-farming households in major producing regions, Mbeya, Morogoro, and Shinyanga, using nationally representative cross-sectional data from 441 households drawn from the 2020/21 Tanzania National Panel Survey. Drawing on random utility theory, the multivariate probit model is applied to estimate adoption decisions jointly for six adaptation strategies: supplemental irrigation, improved resilient rice varieties, integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), integrated pest management (IPM), alternate wetting and drying (AWD), and engagement in non-farm economic activities (NFEA). The results show that adaptation decisions are interdependent, with significant complementarities among water-management strategies and between improved varieties and pest management. However, strategies are not uniformly complementary; instead, they exhibit tradeoffs driven by labor availability, farm size, institutional access, and market connectivity. Water-related strategies are strongly shaped by regional agro-hydrological conditions, particularly in Morogoro, while labor-intensive practices such as ISFM and AWD depend heavily on household labor endowments. Larger farms are more likely to adopt improved varieties and IPM, whereas smaller farms favor soil and water management practices. Institutional factors, especially access to extension services, climate and weather information, and membership in social unions, emerge as key enablers of adaptation. Engagement in non-farm activities functions largely as a substitute adaptation pathway, reflecting opportunity-driven diversification rather than distress responses. This study shows that climate adaptation among rice farmers in Tanzania is characterized by interdependent and context-specific strategy choices shaped by agroecological conditions, household resources, and institutional access. The findings highlight that effective adaptation depends not on blanket promotion of climate-smart practices but on aligning specific strategies with local water availability, labor endowments, farm scales, and market integration. Policies should therefore prioritize geographically targeted water investments, scale-differentiated adaptation packages, and stronger farmer organizations and extension systems. Such context-sensitive and institutionally grounded approaches are essential for enhancing adoption, efficiency, and resilience in Tanzania’s rice sector.

Dimensions

REFERENCES

Arouna, A., Dzomeku, I. K., Shaibu, A.-G., & Nurudeen, A. R. (2023). Water management for sustainable irrigation in rice (Oryza sativa L.) production: A review. Agronomy, 13(6), 1522. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13061522 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13061522

Awoke, M. D., Löhr, K., Kimaro, A. A., Lana, M., Soh Wenda, B. D., Buabeng, K., Hafner, J. M., & Sieber, S. (2025). Exploring gender dynamics in climate-smart agriculture adoption: A study in semi-arid Dodoma, Tanzania. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 8, Article 1507540. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2024.1507540 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2024.1507540

Balama, C., Augustino, S., Eriksen, S., Makonda, F. S. B., & Amanzi, N. (2013). Climate change adaptation strategies by local farmers in Kilombero District, Tanzania. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management, 6(6), 724-736. https://doi.org/10.4314/ejesm.v6i6.3S DOI: https://doi.org/10.4314/ejesm.v6i6.3S

Barrett, C. B., Benton, T. G., Fanzo, J., Herrero, M., Nelson, R. J., & Bageant, E. (2022). Socio-technical innovation bundles for agri-food systems transformation. Nature Sustainability, 5(7), 580-589. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-88802-2

Bedeke, S. B. (2023). Climate change vulnerability and adaptation of crop producers in sub-Saharan Africa: A review on concepts, approaches and methods. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 25, 1017-1051. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02118-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02118-8

Bezu, S., & Barrett, C. B. (2012). Employment dynamics in the rural nonfarm sector in Ethiopia: Do the poor have time on their side? Journal of Development Studies, 48(9), 1223-1240. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2012.671476 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2012.671476

Bongole, A. J. (2023). Adoption of multiple climate smart agricultural practices in Mbeya and Songwe regions in Tanzania. Journal of African Economic Perspectives, 1(1), 41-60. https://journals.udom.ac.tz/index.php/jaep/article/view/606 DOI: https://doi.org/10.58548/2023jaep11.4160

https://doi.org/10.58548/2023jaep11.4160

Brüssow, K., Faße, A., & Grote, U. (2017). Implications of climate-smart strategy adoption by farm households for food security in Tanzania. Food Security, 9, 1203-1218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0694-y DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0694-y

Di Falco, S., & Veronesi, M. (2013). How can African agriculture adapt to climate change? A counterfactual analysis from Ethiopia. Land Economics, 89(4), 743-766. https://doi.org/10.3368/le.89.4.743 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/le.89.4.743

Diro, S., Tesfaye, A., & Erko, B. (2022). Determinants of adoption of climate-smart agricultural technologies and practices in the coffee-based farming system of Ethiopia. Agriculture & Food Security, 11, 42. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-022-00385-2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-022-00385-2

Doss, C., Meinzen-Dick, R., Quisumbing, A., & Theis, S. (2018). Women in agriculture: Four myths. Global Food Security, 16, 69-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2017.10.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2017.10.001

Falmagne, J. C. (1978). A representation theorem for finite random scale systems. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 18(1), 52-72. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-2496(78)90048-2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-2496(78)90048-2

Fischer, E., & Qaim, M. (2022). Linking smallholders to markets: Determinants and impacts of farmer collective action in Kenya. World Development, 154, 105881. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105881

Geja, C. M., & Maphosa, M. (2023). Upland rice: A new high potential non-traditional cash crop for Africa. African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development, 23(9), 24507-24522. https://doi.org/10.18697/ajfand.124.23140 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18697/ajfand.124.23140

Gwambene, B., & Saria, J. (2024). Institutional drivers of farmers' climate change adaptation strategies in Tanzania. Climate and Development, 16(1), 43-55. https://doi.org/10.56279/jgat.v44i1.277

IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, & B. Rama, Eds.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844

Kulyakwave, P. D., Xu, S., & Wen, Y. (2022). Substantial factors influencing the performance of rice farmers in Mbeya Region, Tanzania. Journal of Agricultural Extension and Rural Development, 14(4), 183-189. https://doi.org/10.5897/JAERD2021.1293 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5897/JAERD2021.1293

Lampayan, R. M., Rejesus, R. M., Singleton, G. R., & Bouman, B. A. M. (2015). Adoption and economics of alternate wetting and drying water management for irrigated lowland rice. Field Crops Research, 170, 95-108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.10.013 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.10.013

Long, J. S., & Freese, J. (2014). Regression models for categorical dependent variables using Stata (3rd ed.). Stata Press.

McFadden, D., & Richter, M. K. (1990). Stochastic rationality and revealed stochastic preference. In Preferences, uncertainty, and optimality: Essays in honor of Leo Hurwicz (pp. 161-186). Westview Press.

Mkonda, M. Y. (2021). Sustainable agriculture practices and climate change adaptation in semi-arid areas of Tanzania. In Handbook of Climate Change Across the Food Supply Chain (pp. 85-102). Springer.

Mongi, H., Majule, A. E., & Lyimo, J. G. (2010). Vulnerability and adaptation of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid Tanzania. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 4(6), 371-381. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJEST09.207 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5897/AJEST09.207

Muhie, S. H. (2022). Novel approaches and practices to sustainable agriculture. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 10, Article 100446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2022.100446 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2022.100446

Mungai, C. (2020). Adoption of climate-smart agricultural technologies in Lushoto Climate-Smart Villages in north-eastern Tanzania. Wageningen, The Netherlands: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

Nakano, Y., Tsusaka, T. W., Aida, T., & Pede, V. O. (2018). Is farmer-to-farmer extension effective? Evidence from rice farmers in Tanzania. World Development, 105, 336-351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.013 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.013

Nkuba, J., Ndunguru, A., Madulu, R., & Kajiru, G. (2021). Climate change impacts on rice farming systems in Tanzania. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 16(1), 72-88.

Nkuba, J., Ndunguru, A., Madulu, R., Lwezaura, D., Kajiru, G., Babu, A., Chalamila, B., & Ley, G. (2016). Rice value chain analysis in Tanzania: Identification of constraints, opportunities and upgrading strategies. African Crop Science Journal, 24(1), 73-87. https://doi.org/10.4314/acsj.v24i1.8S DOI: https://doi.org/10.4314/acsj.v24i1.8S

Ojo, T. O., & Baiyegunhi, L. J. S. (2020). Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies and its impact on the net farm income of rice farmers in South-west Nigeria. Land Use Policy, 95, 103946. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.04.007 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.04.007

Onyeneke, R. U. (2021). Does climate change adaptation lead to increased productivity of rice production? Lessons from Ebonyi State, Nigeria. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 36(1), 54-68. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170519000486 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170519000486

Ortiz-Bobea, A., Ault, T. R., Carrillo, C. M., Chambers, R. G., & Lobell, D. B. (2021). Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth. Nature Climate Change, 11(4), 306-312. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01000-1

Tadesse, B., Bakala, F., & Mariam, L. W. (2023). Adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices and its impact on farm productivity: Evidence from the Nile basin of Ethiopia. Environmental Challenges, 11, 100714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2023.100714 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2023.100714

Teklewold, H., Gebrehiwot, T., & Bezabih, M. (2019). Climate smart agricultural practices and gender differentiated nutrition outcome: An empirical evidence from Ethiopia. World Development, 122, 38-53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.05.010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.05.010

Teklewold, H., Kassie, M., & Shiferaw, B. (2013). Adoption of multiple sustainable agricultural practices in rural Ethiopia. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 64(3), 597-623. https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12011

URT. (2021). National Climate Change Response Strategy 2021-2026. Vice President's Office, Division of Environment. https://www.ncmc.go.tz/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/National-Climate-Change-Response-Strategy.pdf

URT. (2022). Shinyanga Region Socio-Economic Profile. President's Office - Regional Administration and Local Government.

URT. (2023). Tanzania Agriculture Sector Development Programme II (ASDP II) Progress Report. Ministry of Agriculture.

URT. (2024). Agricultural Production Statistics 2023/24. National Bureau of Statistics.

World Bank. (2022). Tanzania economic update: Transforming agriculture for economic growth and jobs creation. World Bank Group.