Modeling vaccination and environmental hygiene strategies: An ordinary differential equations approach for optimizing cholera interventions

Abstract

The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and environmental hygiene interventions in controlling cholera outbreaks. We used an Ordinary Differential Equation model using MATLAB for the numerical simulations to examine the influence of varying vaccination rates and sanitation measures on cholera transmission within a population over a simulated period of 400 days. The results showed that increased vaccination rates significantly reduced the susceptible population, while improved sanitation measures led to a decrease in the environmental bacterial load. The computed basic reproduction number is R_0=0.00081634, which is significantly less than unity, indicates that, under the combined effects of vaccination and environmental sanitation interventions, cholera transmission is effectively eliminated. Sensitivity analysis revealed that transmission rate and the rate at which exposed individuals become infectious are the most influential parameters and that the vaccination rate exhibits a high sensitivity index, highlighting the substantial impact of vaccination coverage on cholera transmission dynamics. In contrast, the recovery rate and the waning rate of vaccine-induced immunity have negligible sensitivity indices, indicating a limited influence on the model outcome within the parameter ranges considered. Environmental parameters, including the bacterial decay rate, bacterial shedding rate, and sanitation intervention rate, exhibit relatively low sensitivity values. While their individual effects are modest, collectively, they contribute to reducing environmental contamination and complement direct human-targeted interventions. These findings suggest that a combined approach of heightened vaccination efforts and rigorous environmental hygiene practices is essential for the timely control of cholera outbreaks.