Influence of milk price and selected factors of production on milk supply in Matayos Sub-County, Busia County, Kenya

Résumé

The dairy sector plays an important role in Kenya’s rural economy and contributes approximately 14% to the national agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite its economic importance, milk production in many regions remains below its potential due to production constraints affecting smallholder dairy farmers. In Busia County’s Matayos Sub-County, dairy production is largely dominated by small-scale farmers operating under low-input and low-output systems, which limit productivity and milk supply to the market. This study examined the effect of milk price and selected production factors on milk supply in Matayos Sub-County, Busia County, Kenya. The study was guided by Value Chain Theory, Demand and Supply Theory, and Positional Advantage Theory, which explain how production factors and market structures influence milk supply. The study adopted a cross-sectional correlational research design within a mixed-methods approach, integrating both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The target population comprised 16,000 smallholder dairy farmers together with extension officers and dairy value-chain stakeholders in Matayos Sub-County. A total of 400 respondents, comprising dairy farmers, extension officers, and other value chain stakeholders, were purposively sampled across selected wards of Matayos Sub-County. Data were collected using structured questionnaires, observations, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Quantitative data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 28.0, while qualitative data were analyzed through thematic analysis. Pairwise comparison of means was conducted using the Least Significant Difference (LSD) test at a significance level of P ≤ 0.05. The results showed that most farmers sold milk at relatively low farm-gate prices, with 62.9% selling at KSh 40–50 per litre, 31.6% selling at KSh 51–60, and only 5.5% accessing higher-value markets offering KSh 61–70 per litre. Correlation analysis revealed a weak and negative relationship between purchased feeds and milk yield (r = –0.035, p = .483), indicating that purchasing feeds alone does not necessarily lead to increased milk production. The findings suggest that milk price and selected production factors such as feed availability, grazing access, and market accessibility influence milk supply among smallholder farmers. The study concludes that improving dairy management practices, strengthening cooperative marketing systems, and enhancing farmers’ access to markets and production inputs are critical for increasing milk supply and improving the sustainability of dairy farming in Matayos Sub-County. The study recommends strengthening dairy cooperatives, investing in milk collection and cooling infrastructure, enhancing extension services on feed and herd management, and improving access to market information systems to increase milk supply and improve market outcomes for smallholder dairy farmers.