Effects of climate change on Covid-19 recovery among households in informal settlements of Kakamega Municipality, Kenya

Mercy Khasoa Kerreh; Amon M. Karanja; Daniel Naburi Namenya

doi:10.51867/ajernet.7.4.107

Authors

Mercy Khasoa Kerreh Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, Kenya https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4109-0928
Amon M. Karanja Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, Kenya https://orcid.org/0009-0004-6744-9651
Daniel Naburi Namenya Masinde Muliro University of Science & Technology, Kenya https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6721-1107

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51867/ajernet.7.4.107

Keywords:

Climate Change, COVID-19 Recovery, Household Livelihoods, Informal Settlements, Kakamega Municipality,, Rainfall and Temperature Variability

Abstract

Climate change may increase environmental and socio-economic challenges for households recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examined the effects of climate change on COVID-19 recovery among households in informal settlements of Kakamega Municipality, Kenya. Guided by Vulnerability and Adaptation Theory, the study adopted a cross-sectional mixed-methods design. The target population comprised households in Masingo, Kambi Somali and Makaburini informal settlements. Of the 384 households targeted, 372 questionnaires were analysed, representing a 96.9% response rate. Systematic sampling was used to select households, while purposive and snowball sampling were used to identify key informants. Data were collected using household questionnaires, 12 key informant interviews, focus group discussions and an observation checklist, alongside Kenya Meteorological Department rainfall and temperature records for 1985–2024. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, linear regression, chi-square tests and binary logistic regression, while qualitative data were analysed thematically. Annual rainfall increased by approximately 13.85 mm per year, while mean annual temperature increased by 0.008°C per year. All respondents reported changes in rainfall, with 55.9% describing it as unpredictable, while 99.1% reported increased heat. Economic recovery remained incomplete, with 80.9% reporting partial income recovery and 83.1% experiencing difficulty meeting basic needs. Perceived changes in rainfall were significantly associated with incomplete income recovery (COR = 3.353, p < 0.001), whereas flooding and extreme heat were not significantly associated with the selected economic recovery indicators. The study concludes that climate variability is an important consideration in household recovery from COVID-19. It recommends integrating climate-informed livelihood support with improved drainage and basic infrastructure to support vulnerable households in informal settlements.

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