The nexus between climate change and violent extremism in North-Western Kenya: Unpacking the nexus in a fragile dryland ecosystem

Reuben Ating’a Akeng’a Bernster

doi:10.51867/ajernet.7.4.80

Authors

Reuben Ating’a Akeng’a Bernster Parliament of Kenya https://orcid.org/0009-0005-3551-0953

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51867/ajernet.7.4.80

Keywords:

Climate Change, Nexus, Drought, North-Western Kenya, Pastoralism, Violent Extremism

Abstract

North-western Kenya (Turkana, West Pokot, Elgeyo-Marakwet and Baringo counties) experiences recurrent climatic shocks and a growing presence of violent extremism, yet the pathways linking the two remain poorly evidenced. Anchored in Environmental Scarcity Theory, this study examined how climate-induced livelihood shocks (drought, livestock loss and resource-based displacement) influence vulnerability to violent extremist recruitment, and how structural and governance conditions shape that relationship. A convergent parallel mixed-methods design was adopted. The target population comprised pastoral and agro-pastoral households in the four counties and key stakeholders in security, community leadership and civil society. Primary data were collected between 2021 and 2023 from 280 randomly sampled households in 14 sub-counties, 34 key informants and eight focus group discussions (purposively selected) and were complemented by climate records from the Kenya Meteorological Department and the CHIRPS satellite rainfall dataset (1990–2023) and conflict event data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (2010–2023). Quantitative data were analysed using Pearson correlation and negative binomial regression in R (v4.3.1), and qualitative data were analysed thematically. Drought frequency was strongly and positively correlated with conflict incidence (r = 0.74, p < 0.01); after adjusting for population density, poverty and border proximity, each additional severe drought event was associated with a 12.3% rise in conflict incidents (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.123, 95% CI: 1.06–1.19). Turkana recorded the highest levels of drought, conflict and extremist recruitment reports. Qualitative evidence showed that loss of herds, idleness and economic despair expose young men to recruiters’ offers of pay, weapons and belonging, while governance vacuums allow non-state actors to fill unmet security and conflict-resolution needs. The study concludes that climate change acts as a ‘threat multiplier’ that compounds existing poverty, marginalisation and weak governance rather than as a direct cause of extremism. It recommends climate-adaptive livelihoods, conflict-sensitive early warning, stronger local governance and community-based counter-extremism programmes.

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