Egypt’s national security strategy and its effectiveness in sustaining stability in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: Addressing hybrid maritime threats and regional competition

Abstract

The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are strategically vital maritime corridors connecting Africa, Asia, and Europe, and are increasingly affected by geopolitical rivalry, maritime insecurity, hybrid threats, and military competition. These developments carry significant implications for Egypt's national security, economic interests, and the security of the Suez Canal. This study assessed the effectiveness of Egypt's national security strategy in sustaining stability in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden between 2015 and 2025, with particular attention to hybrid maritime threats and regional strategic competition. The study adopted a descriptive mixed-methods research design, employing structured questionnaires, semi-structured key informant interviews, and documentary analysis. Data were obtained from 125 valid respondents drawn from military, diplomatic, academic, strategic research, and maritime institutions. Realist Theory and Regional Security Complex Theory guided the interpretation of the findings. The findings indicate that Egypt has progressively shifted from a predominantly reactive and territorially oriented maritime posture towards a proactive, multifaceted security strategy characterized by naval modernization, forward maritime deployment, strategic diplomacy, regional cooperation, and technology-enabled maritime domain awareness. Approximately 89.6% of respondents reported that naval modernization has contributed profoundly to regional stability, while 83.2% identified forward maritime deployment as important for protecting strategic maritime chokepoints. In addition, 69.6% recognized the significant contribution of artificial intelligence and digital technologies to maritime security, while 71.2% identified hybrid threats as a major risk to long-term regional stability. The study concludes that Egypt's strategy has strengthened maritime deterrence and contributed to regional stability, but that sustainable security cannot be achieved through military capabilities alone. It requires integrated institutional coordination, cyber resilience, technological innovation, economic resilience, regional diplomacy, and cooperative maritime governance.