Examining military reform efforts and security outcomes in Defence Modernisation in Ethiopia

Abstract

This study focused on defence modernisation and national security in Ethiopia, critically analysing the Ethiopian military reform efforts and the security outcomes, and understanding the socio-political and external security environment. The study emphasised the modernisation of military technology, upgrading of military hardware and equipment, intelligence systems, and training programs to enhance the operational effectiveness of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF). The research was conducted using patterns of theory analysis of Modernisation Theory, Dependency Theory and National Security Theory to explain the relationship between defence modernisation and the security outcomes of the nation. A convergent parallel mixed-methods research design was adopted, where there is a quantitative and qualitative approach.  The target population comprised 4,545 ENDF officers, Ministry of Defence officers, defence analysts and international military advisers, of which 368 respondents were selected using stratified random and purposive sampling techniques. SPSS version 27 was used to analyse quantitative data, using descriptive statistics, correlation, regression and Analysis of Variance [ANOVA] analysis, and their qualitative data were analysed thematically. The results showed that defence modernisation has resulted in significant enhancement of Ethiopian counterinsurgency operations, border operations, intelligence collection and operational preparedness. Specifically, 55.4% said that capability in response to insurgencies had improved within ENDF since 2017, and 71.0% indicated that modernisation had increased the security and surveillance capabilities of borders. Correlation and regression analysis also found the most positive effect on national security outcomes to be military technologies (β = 0.398, p = 0.000). The study also revealed significant operational, institutional and policy problems existing during the process of modernisation, such as logistical inefficiencies, excessive delay in bureaucracy, corruption, weak institutional coordination, etc., and overdependence on foreign military suppliers.  The study concludes that the defence modernisation has enhanced Ethiopia's capacity for national security, but for it to be sustainable, a combination of military modernisation, socioeconomic stability and political security should be present. It thus recommends better institutional modernisation, better defence coordination and more coordinated defence investments, emphasizing the links with the overall national development agenda and stability.