The nexus between infrastructural development and sustainable peace and security in intercommunal conflict: Evidence from Baringo County, Kenya

Abstract

Intercommunal conflict in Kenya’s North Rift region has long undermined livelihoods, social cohesion and local governance. Although infrastructure development is increasingly promoted as a pathway to peace, empirical evidence on its role in pastoralist, subnational settings remains limited. This study examined the relationship between infrastructural development and sustainable peace and security in Baringo County, Kenya. The study was underpinned by Human Needs Theory and the Conflict Transformation Framework, which explain how infrastructure may address structural deprivation and transform relationships and institutions that perpetuate conflict. Using a cross-sectional descriptive survey design and a convergent mixed-methods approach, data were collected from 252 household heads, 26 key informants and 72 focus group participants across the Tugen, Pokot, Ilchamus and Turkana communities in Baringo North and Tiaty sub-counties. Secondary conflict data covering 2010–2024 were used to triangulate the primary findings. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression, while qualitative data were analysed thematically. Recorded conflict events, fatalities, injuries and displacement declined between 2010–2014 and 2020–2024, coinciding with the reported expansion of roads, water systems, schools, health facilities and market centres. Respondents associated infrastructure development with faster security responses, reduced cattle raiding, improved access to markets and services, and stronger intercommunal trust. Infrastructure-driven economic activities were positively and significantly associated with sustainable peace and security (B = 0.244, p < 0.001), whereas governance challenges were negatively and significantly associated with sustainable peace and security (B = −0.203, β = −0.469, p < 0.001). Opportunities for intercommunal cooperation had a positive but non-significant independent relationship. The study concludes that infrastructure can contribute to peace when it is equitably distributed, effectively maintained and supported by transparent governance and meaningful community participation. It recommends conflict-sensitive planning, ring-fenced maintenance budgets, strengthened accountability, and the integration of infrastructure investment with community reconciliation programmes.