Assessing impact of climate change on maize production in Tanzania: Inter-regional analysis

Sarah Nibitangaza; Hercidio Jaime Tandane; Nicetus Seluhinga; Joseph Phillip Hella

doi:10.51867/ajernet.6.4.90

Authors

Sarah Nibitangaza Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3007, Morogoro, Tanzania
Hercidio Jaime Tandane Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7530-4189
Nicetus Seluhinga Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3007, Morogoro, Tanzania https://orcid.org/0009-0009-7654-7225
Joseph Phillip Hella Department of Trade and Investment, Sokoine University of Agriculture, P.O. Box 3007, Morogoro, Tanzania https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9959-8564

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51867/ajernet.6.4.90

Keywords:

ARDL-ECM, Climate Change, Inter-Regional Analysis, Maize Production, Tanzania

Abstract

Climate change is one of the major contributors to reduced agricultural production globally, and particularly in Africa, where the majority of households rely on rain-fed agriculture. Variability in rainfall, rising temperatures, and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels put crops at risk. Guided by Nerlove’s agricultural supply-response theory, the study conceptualized maize production as mainly influenced by climatic factors, with rainfall and temperature treated as external factors that shift the maize supply curve. A quantitative longitudinal design was adopted to assess the impact of climate change on maize production in Tanzania, with emphasis on Kongwa, Kilosa, and Mufindi. Secondary time series (1990–2020) data on annual rainfall, temperature, maize production, and cultivated area under maize were collected from the Tanzania Meteorological Authority, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the Food and Agriculture Organization for quantitative analysis using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM). The model results show that maize production is strongly affected by rainfall in the short run, with significant effects in Kongwa (0.0029; p < 0.001), Kilosa (0.0010; p = 0.012), and Mufindi (0.0010; p < 0.001). Although the short-run rainfall effects suggest an immediate, but not lasting, impact on maize production, the long-run rainfall effects were insignificant across districts. In Mufindi, temperature had a significant impact on maize production in the short and long run (–0.0311; p < 0.001), indicating that warming reduces production in cooler highlands. The error-correction terms (ECT) were significant across districts: Kongwa (–0.9946; p < 0.001), Kilosa (–0.9855; p = 0.003), and Mufindi (–0.3563; p = 0.027), implying that production adjusts to climatic shocks over time. An increasingly cultivated area under maize enhances resilience, but it is still climate-constrained. Rainfall variability affects Kongwa and Kilosa, which are resilient owing to a milder climate, and Mufindi, which is vulnerable to temperature stress. The study suggests agricultural crop insurance, climate-resilient infrastructure and technology, improved irrigation in Kongwa, better water management in Kilosa, and heat-tolerant varieties in Mufindi as key interventions to meet these challenges and support food security across Tanzania’s agroecologies.

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