Contrasting electoral outcomes: A comparative study of the 2024 elections in Mozambique and Botswana

Abstract

The study examined the historical, political, and social contexts of Mozambique and Botswana's electoral outcomes and political stability. The research seeks to fill a knowledge gap and inform Southern African democratic consolidation efforts by analysing these diverse experiences. Political Culture Theory and Electoral Systems Theory were used to examine how societal norms and electoral frameworks affect electoral dynamics, governance, and public participation, emphasising historical contexts and institutional arrangements. The research focusses on electoral systems, party dynamics, security forces, and political culture. To fully study electoral outcomes and public responses in both countries, a mixed-methods explanatory design was used. Interview and focus group participants were selected using purposeful sampling to ensure political, gender, and age diversity. Surveys across demographic segments used stratified random sampling to ensure comparability. Semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and electoral report and policy document analysis were used to collect citizens' opinions. For a balanced interpretation, qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis and quantitative data were presented using descriptive and inferential statistical methods. The study reveals significant contrasts in political culture and public perceptions of electoral outcomes, with Mozambique exhibiting widespread mistrust in electoral institutions. At the same time, Botswana demonstrates strong public confidence in its democratic processes. Regression analysis reveals a robust relationship between political culture and electoral outcomes, with an R² value of 0.968, indicating that political culture accounts for 96.8% of the variance in electoral outcomes. Key findings highlight Mozambique's low mean scores on trust and fairness in elections, in contrast to Botswana's high mean scores, underscoring the critical role of political culture in shaping public trust and perceptions of electoral integrity. The results emphasise the contrasting historical and political contexts that shape electoral systems. Mozambique's proportional representation system perpetuates the dominance of the ruling Frelimo Partido Africano de Libertação de Moçambique (in Portuguese), translating to the Mozambique Liberation Front in English. (FRELIMO), while Botswana's first-past-the-post system fosters direct accountability. The role of security forces also diverges, with Mozambique's forces being viewed as oppressive, thereby undermining public trust, whereas Botswana's security institutions are perceived as neutral, thereby enhancing democratic integrity. Overall, the findings illustrate how historical, cultural, and institutional factors significantly influence electoral processes in both countries. The study enhances understanding of the influence of political culture on electoral systems and public trust, offering valuable insights for future research and policy development in political science. Its implications also serve to motivate further investigation into electoral stability and democratic consolidation in the region. This comparative analysis deepens our understanding of how historical and cultural contexts shape electoral systems, underscoring the pivotal role of political culture in shaping public trust and perceptions of electoral integrity. It provides valuable insights for future research and policy in political science. It also inspires and motivates the audience with its implications for future work.