Effects of Perceived Relative Advantage and Complexity on Sustained Adoption of Indigenous Weather Forecasts in the West Usambara Mountains, Tanzania

Emmanuel Paul Mzingula; Fatihiya Massawe; Raymond Salanga

doi:10.51867/ajernet.5.3.84

Authors

Emmanuel Paul Mzingula
emmanuelmzingula@yahoo.com
Sokoine University of Agriculture, Department of Development and Strategic Studies, Morogoro, Tanzania https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3834-6872
Fatihiya Massawe Institute of Judicial Administration, Lushoto, Tanzania https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6210-0432
Raymond Salanga Sokoine University of Agriculture, Department of Development and Strategic Studies, Morogoro, Tanzania https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6602-6548

Keywords:

climate change, climate change adaptation, indigenous weather forecast, agriculture, sustained adoption

Abstract

Agriculture is a climate-sensitive economic sector that requires reliable and precise weather information to enable farmers to cope with seasonal weather as well as adapt to climate change to increase yields. In the West Usambara Mountains, the Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) project promoted the integration of indigenous weather forecasts with scientific weather forecast services from 2011 to 2019. The project aimed to enhance the availability and precision of weather information for reducing agricultural risks and losses posed by climate change. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of perceived relative advantage and complexity on sustained adoption of indigenous weather forecast services after phasing out of the CCAFS project. Specifically, this study determined sustained adoption of indigenous weather forecast services, evaluated farmers’ access to indigenous weather information, and examined the effects of perceived relative advantage and complexity on sustained adoption. The study was anchored on the diffusion of innovation theory. A cross-sectional research design employing both qualitative and quantitative approaches was used. Simple random sampling was used to select 124 households from 140 farming households that participated in the CCAFS project. Data were collected through household questionnaire surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions. Data analysis was done using descriptive statistical analysis and binary logistic regression for quantitative data and thematic analysis for qualitative data. Results show that sustained adoption of indigenous weather forecast services was 66.1%. Farmers had good access to indigenous weather information from peer-to-peer farmers and elders. Perceived relative advantage in increasing crop productivity increases the likelihood of sustained adoption of indigenous weather forecast services (β₁=3.777, p=0.003). Perceived complexity in terms of difficult-to-use an innovation reduces the likelihood of sustained adoption of indigenous weather information services (β₃=-3.577, p = 0.008). Perceived relative advantage in cost reduction (β₂=0.354, p = 0.766) and perceived complexity in understanding innovation (β₄=-1.422, p = 0.365) had no effects on sustained adoption of indigenous weather forecast services. The study concludes that farmers’ perceptions of relative advantage and complexity are important in promoting the adoption sustainability of indigenous weather forecast services, particularly in the West Usambara Mountains. It is recommended that policymakers, agricultural extension workers, and other stakeholders integrate farmers' perceptions of relative advantage and complexity when designing, promoting, and disseminating indigenous weather forecast services to increase yields regardless of change in climatic and weather conditions.

Author Biography

Raymond Salanga, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Department of Development and Strategic Studies, Morogoro, Tanzania

Department of Development and Strategic studies

Dimensions

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