Effect of Inflation on Kenya’s Maize Production and Food Security

Husna Shilwatso; Edwin Jairus Simiyu; Reuben Kipkirui Rutto

doi:10.51867/ajernet.5.2.45

Authors

Husna Shilwatso
husnashilwatso@gmail.com
Masinde Muliro University of science and Technology, Kenya https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0659-683X
Edwin Jairus Simiyu Masinde Muliro University of science and Technology, Kenya https://orcid.org/0009-0003-5383-5992
Reuben Kipkirui Rutto Masinde Muliro University of science and Technology, Kenya https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7492-1249

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Food Security, High Food Price, Inflation, Policies, Price Volatility

Abstract

The aim of this project was to examine the major determinants of Kenya's maize production. These objectives were actualized by evaluating the role of government policies on Kenya’s maize production for food security between 1992 and 2022 and examining the relationship between inflation and maize production for food security in Kenya between 1992 and 2022. The food availability decline theory would be instrumental in guiding this study. Time-series secondary data from the World Bank, FAOSTAT, and World Trade Organization (WTO) for the relevant period 1990–2022 was used to do this. Using a correlation research design, the econometric analysis of the time-series data revealed that inflation, unemployment, and eventually gross domestic GDP determined maize production. In the near term, the findings demonstrated that the exchange rate, one period's lag in the exchange rate, and the amount and quantity of maize imports all influence maize production. The results imply that in order to lessen the over-reliance on maize production, macroeconomic conditions should be effectively managed to improve domestic maize production, deter a spike in imports of the grain, and enhance food security in the nation.

Dimensions

REFERENCES

Chand, R. (2010). Understanding the nature and causes of food inflation. Economic and Political Weekly, 10-13.

Chirat, A., Clerc, B., & Holt, R. P. (2024, January). The social consequences of inflation and unemployment and their remedies. In Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology: Including a Symposium on John Kenneth Galbraith: Economic Structures and Policies for the Twenty-first Century (Vol. 41, pp. 93-106). Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0743-41542024000041C006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/S0743-41542024000041C006

Dercon, S., & Krishnan, P. (2000). In sickness and in health: Risk sharing within households in rural Ethiopia. Journal of Political Economy, 108(4), 688-727. https://doi.org/10.1086/316098 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/316098

Di Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣ., Silva, A., & Yildirim, M. A. (2022). Global supply chain pressures, international trade, and inflation (No. w30240). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w30240, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4160084 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w30240

Gogtay, N. J., & Thatte, U. M. (2017). Principles of correlation analysis. Journal of the Association of Physicians of India, 65(3), 78-81.

Gujarati, D. N. (2021). Essentials of econometrics. Sage Publications.

Greenwood, J., & Hanke, S. H. (2021). On monetary growth and inflation in leading economies, 2021‐2022: Relative prices and the overall price level. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 33(4), 39-51. https://doi.org/10.1111/jacf.12479 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jacf.12479

Heady, D., & Fan, S. (2008). Anatomy of a crisis. International Food Policy Research Institute.

Kabugua, L. N. (2023). Assessment of household expenditure patterns and their effects on food security: The case of French beans producing households in Mbooni Sub-county, Kenya (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi).

Karagöz, A., & Kandemir, O. (2023). The impacts of pandemic on food security and food inflation. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, 11(8), 1285-1297. https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v11i8.1285-1297.5717 DOI: https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v11i8.1285-1297.5717

Kassy, W. C., Ndu, A. C., Okeke, C. C., & Aniwada, E. C. (2021). Food security status and factors affecting household food security in Enugu State, Nigeria. Journal of Health Care for the Poor and Underserved, 32(1), 565-581. https://doi.org/10.1353/hpu.2021.0041 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/hpu.2021.0041

Kiptum, G. K. (2022). Relationship between Kenya's economic growth and inflation. SN Business & Economics, 2(12), 189.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-022-00376-2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43546-022-00376-2

Kungu, G., & Iraya, C. (2017). Initial public offer pricing and stock returns: A critical literature review. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 7(11), 201-208.

Lust, D., Masias, J., Muntz, B., & Scalisi, M. (2023). Starobinsky inflation in the swampland. arXiv preprint arXiv:2312.13210.

Mahmood, M. (2022). Vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Hunger and prices. In Growth, Jobs and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: No Country Left Behind (pp. 171-202). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-91574-2_5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-91574-2_5

Mechlem, K. (2004). Food security and the right to food in the discourse of the United Nations. European Law Journal, 10(5), 631-648.

https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0386.2004.00235.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0386.2004.00235.x

Mumo, M. P. (2017). The determinants of stock returns in the emerging market of Kenya: An empirical evidence. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(9), 8-21. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v9n9p8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v9n9p8

Nyoro, J. K. (2019). Agriculture and rural growth in Kenya. Tegemeo Institute.

Ouma, J., Bett, E., & Mbataru, P. (2014). Does adoption of improved maize varieties enhance household food security in maize growing zones of Eastern Kenya. Developing Country Studies, 4(23), 157-165.

Pinol, L., Renaux-Petel, S., & Tada, Y. (2021). A manifestly covariant theory of multifield stochastic inflation in phase space: Solving the discretisation ambiguity in stochastic inflation. Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, 2021(04), 048. https://doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516/2021/04/048 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1475-7516/2021/04/048

Rauch-Mannino, N. (2022). Rising inflation forces greater attention to food insecurity in Africa.

Roberts, M. J., & Schlenker, W. (2009). World supply and demand of food commodity calories. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91(5), 1235-1242. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01290.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01290.x

Simatele, M. C., Schaling, E., & Alagidede, P. (2015). Is Zambia ready for inflation targeting? African Review of Economics and Finance, 7(2), 1-28.

Tursoy, T., & Faisal, F. (2018). The impact of gold and crude oil prices on stock market in Turkey: Empirical evidences from ARDL bounds test and combined cointegration. Resources Policy, 55, 49-54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.10.014 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.10.014

Urban, B., Townsend, S. A., & Bowen, A. (2020). DEV Mozambique: Food security through innovative social enterprise development. Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies, 10(2), 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1108/EEMCS-02-2020-0042 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/EEMCS-02-2020-0042

Vos, R., Glauber, J. W., Hernandez, M. A., & Laborde Debucquet, D. (2022). COVID-19 and food inflation scares. In J. McDermott & J. Swinnen (Eds.), COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later (Part Two: Agricultural Production and Value Chains, Chapter 10, pp. 64-72). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294226_10 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294226_10